Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University

Speaker: Andrew Scobell, Distinguished Fellow for China, United States Institute of Peace

Moderator: Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Columbia University 

Andrew Scobell is an expert on the Chinese military. There is fevered speculation around the world over whether China will attack Taiwan militarily and if so, when and how. If and when China does so, there are various actions it could take, ranging from a blockade to an amphibious assault. Whatever operation China might undertake would be extremely complex and difficult on its own, but would also have to contend with the possibility of an American intervention, possibly in collaboration with U.S. regional allies. Much is known about Chinese platforms and training, but we have not seen the Chinese military tested in actual combat of any significant scale since its invasion of Vietnam in 1979. Scobell will present an informed analysis of the various potential Chinese strategies for attacking Taiwan and how they might succeed or fail.