Dr Joel Wuthnow, National Defense University

Over the last few years, the tempo of Chinese military operations around Taiwan has accelerated and some foreign analysts and government officials have grown increasingly concerned about the prospects that China will seek to achieve unification through force. Yet the risks of such a conflict for the PRC would be enormous and the People’s Liberation Army continues to wrestle with key challenges. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s defence policy is gradually shifting, the US military is experimenting with new operational concepts, and US–Taiwan security cooperation is deepening. This talk will explore where the Taiwan issue fits within China’s larger military strategy, China’s range of options to deter Taiwan independence and lay the groundwork for non-peaceful reunification, limitations and risks facing the PLA, and implications for Taiwan and US responses. It will also touch on lessons the PLA may be deriving from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Dr Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the US National Defense University in Washington, DC. His research areas include Chinese foreign policy, Chinese military affairs, US–China relations and strategic developments in Asia.