Lyle J. Goldstein (Defense Priorities), Zack Cooper (American Enterprise Institute), David Welch (University of Waterloo), Peggy Mason (Rideau Institute), Kelley Vlahos (Quincy Institute)

Maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the ongoing risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait are major fault lines for regional stability in Asia. Cross-strait relations are at a standstill amid questions on the Biden administration’s commitments to Taipei, debates over “strategic ambiguity”, recent arms sales, and the evolving force postures of Beijing and Washington. In the South China Sea, freedom of navigation operations, negotiations over a joint Code of Conduct and the role of US defense treaties with Manila have yet to generate a sustainable path to de-escalation and stability.

This discussion will explore the risk of hot conflict and evaluate the most serious flashpoints for regional instability. Speakers will review latent threat perceptions, the strategic sense of Taiwan as a “red line”, existing tools and mediating institutions for diplomatic engagement as well as crisis channels for military-to-military communication.