Baohui Zhang is Professor of Government and International Affairs at Lingnan University, Hong Kong. 

David Smith (Moderator) is Associate Professor of American Politics and Foreign Policy, jointly appointed between the US Studies Centre and the School of Social and Political Sciences. He is a regular commentator on American politics in the Australian media.

China Studies Centre, the University of Sydney

What defines the polarity of the current international system? Unipolarity, bipolarity, or multipolarity? This talk examines the theoretical and real-world challenges of deciphering the polarity of the international system. It argues that the root cause of the challenges lies with the fuzzy nature of power, which makes precise measurement of state power and comparisons of state power difficult at best. This is especially the case during a power transition, which creates fluid and unpredictable power trends. For example, whether a rising China has “peaked” or a relatively declining United States has successfully retrenched have implications for forecasting the emerging polarity. This talk examines the current debate over polarity and how it affects our understanding of US-China relations. It is premised on structural realism’s insight on the centrality of polarity in explaining great power behaviors and international outcomes.

Baohui Zhang is Professor of Government and International Affairs at Lingnan University, Hong Kong. He was also director of Centre for Asian Pacific Studies from 2010 to 2020. His research interests include great power politics, Sino-US relations, and Chinese foreign policy. His recent publications include “Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst: China’s Varied Responses to US Strategic Competition,” Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 33, No. 146 (2024), pp. 352-371; “Polarity and Strategic Competition: A Structural Explanation of Renewed Great Power Rivalry,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 16, Issue 4 (Winter 2023), pp. 383-405; “From Defensive toward Offensive Realism: Strategic Competition and Continuities in the United States China Policy,” Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 31, Issue 137 (2022), pp. 793-809; “When Civilizational Clashes Meet Power Shifts: Rethinking Global Disorder,” Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 15, No. 4 (Winter 2022), pp. 352-373; “China’s Rise and the New World Order,” in B.J.C. McKercher, ed., Routledge Handbook of Diplomacy and Statecraft (New York: Routledge 2022), pp. 46-59.

David Smith (Moderator) is Associate Professor of American Politics and Foreign Policy, jointly appointed between the US Studies Centre and the School of Social and Political Sciences. He is a regular commentator on American politics in the Australian media.