Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences, The University of Hong Kong

The increasing availability of historical microdata offers new opportunities to explore demographic patterns in the past. This research uses genealogical records of 23,449 males and their spouses from six Chinese lineages spanning 1300–1920 to examine the intergenerational transmission of fertility and human capital. The empirical results reveal a strong trade-off between reproduction and long-term reproductive success: high reproduction in each generation did not consistently lead to long-term reproductive success. Further analysis of the mechanisms is consistent with a child quantity-quality trade-off, highlighting the potential costs of excessive reproduction through different outcomes in sons’ quality: having more brothers exhibited minimal impact on marriageability but was associated with lower human capital. Together, these findings contribute to a deeper understanding of micro-demographic dynamics in pre-modern China and the persistence of Malthusian constraints.